(See Charts at bottom)

Accounting for progress in reducing GHG emissions at a community scale can be a challenging and laborious process. It is important to know how well we are doing, but the time and effort involved in getting a complete picture might be better spent on some of the strategies identified above. However, progress can be estimated by looking at a few key metrics. The best metrics are those for which data are readily available, where results can reasonably be predicted from the data, and where the outcome is expected to result in a noticeable change within the timeframe being studied. As part of this CAP Update, our consultants prepared a tracking tool that focuses on a key metric for each of 10 strategies. Table 1 lists the strategies along with the metrics used as indicators for each. This will allow the City to estimate progress in reducing local emissions on an annual basis, without having to do a complete new inventory. While these metrics do not address every aspect of the community’s GHG emissions, tracking them will allow the community to see real progress being made, or not, on the strategies identified in this plan for reducing GHG emissions. The tracking tool includes a number of assumptions built off existing information about GHG emissions, population and employment growth, commuting patterns, and other factors. The approach taken is conservative, to ensure that GHG emission reductions are not overestimated. For example, it accounts for gradual improvement in the fuel efficiency of cars mandated by federal regulations. The fact that many manufacturers are moving rapidly toward electric vehicles is not factored in.

Using this tracking tool, the consultant worked with City staff to estimate how aggressively each strategy might be applied, using 2035 and 2050 as planning horizons. These two horizon years were selected because 2050 is the date by which the City’s sciencebased target mandates the full mitigation of GHG emissions (net-zero emissions), and 2035 was an approximate midpoint. The tracking tool provides an estimate of how much GHG emissions would be affected if all of the strategies are on track by each of the planning horizon years. The graph in Figure 14 depicts the path that Edmonds emissions reductions will take between now and 2050, assuming success in all strategies being tracked, compared to the overall net-zero target set by this plan. As shown in Figure 14 there is still a reduction gap of 95,070 MT CO2e for 2050. A reduction gap means that further measures will be needed. In particular, fossil-fuel based gas (natural gas) must either be replaced with carbon-neutral gas, or eliminated from use, and refrigerants must be either switched to carbon-neutral refrigerants or all leaks must be eliminated. These two changes would substantially reduce the gap, but require technological changes that have yet to become economical. Even with these changes, there will likely be the need for some carbon sequestration, as discussed in Section 7, Environment. Carbon sequestration is also evolving. Technological advances for some industries and the use of natural systems, such as “blue carbon” sequestration through restoration of marine environments, offer hope for economically viable solutions in the near future.